Analogous

   I love a good analogy. I guess my brain’s wired for it. But I know this isn’t true for everyone. Sometimes when I’m speaking with someone and using what I think is a really clever analogy, I’ll see their eyes start to glaze over and I’ll know that I’ve blown it.
 
   Example: Just the other day in a discussion with a friend, I was using an airplane analogy to describe what it’s like to start and run a business. In brief, I was trying to make the point that it’s important for entrepreneurs to conduct a “pre-flight checklist” to make sure their “airplane is flight-worthy” and that then after you’re “in the air” it’s important to have a good “dashboard” to monitor the health of your “flight.”

   I thought this was clever as hell and I was really enjoying myself, getting into it, when I saw the dreaded eye glazing. Rats. I had to wind down my analogy and get explicit. Not nearly as fun, but there you go.
 
   All the above is a forewarning. I’m about to take a stroll down the path to Analogy Land, and I felt I should provide a courtesy head’s up in case it’s not your cup of tea. You can jump ship now. It’s OK.

What’s Going On?
 
   It’s been about a year now since the Covid thing spooled up, and I don’t know about you, but I have a funny feeling that something’s not right, that the dust hasn’t quite settled. I’m not talking about the so-called ‘conspiracy’ side of things where we might question the very nature of the pandemic, whether it was natural or planned, etc. Instead, I’m talking about the current and future state of world after a year of dealing with the Covid pandemic.  It feels to me as if some chess pieces are getting moved around on the Big Board (see…here’s some analogy stuff creeping in…) but we don’t have sight of the moves just yet.
 
   Fundamentally, I’m not sure if we’re now gently emerging on the other side of all this Covid stuff (best case), or if this is the quiet before the storm (worst case). And I find it disconcerting that I’m unable to sense which is closer to the truth.
 
   Anyway, here are two analogies that I’m using to try to make sense of the world right now. Take ‘em or leave ‘em…
 
Analogy 1: NASCAR
 
   If you follow NASCAR racing – or any other motor racing series – you’ll know that the teams are fiercely competitive.  But they’re really only competitive within the confines of a rule book, a set of regulations that describe, in minutiae, the construction of the cars and the yes/no’s of the competitions. Whenever the rules change, all the teams feel it equally. Competition continues after a rule change, pretty much as before, but everything gets scaled up or down, accordingly.
 
   During this Covid thing I know that many businesses have closed, that people have been put out of work, and that there has been real economic impact, for sure. But I’m going to say that the world is still right-side-up right now because the food supply chain hasn’t been broken. And because there’s still heat and electricity to be had. And because the stock market hasn’t collapsed.
 
   So perhaps the Covid thing is like getting a new rule book that everyone is now obliged to follow. And perhaps because everyone has been affected, this explains why the world isn’t turned upside-down economically right now. Things are continuing on, but everything has been scaled down across the board. It’s just another day at the races. The mood is ho-hum.
 
Analogy 2: TSUNAMI
 
   My friend, Troy, was in Indonesia on the day after Christmas in 2004. He was on a beach with a film crew when the tsunami hit. He described to me how he watched the water suck out into the ocean, temporarily extending the beach a couple hundred yards. He saw plenty of people running out onto the new, sandy expanse, thrilled to pick up exotic shells and flopping fish and whatnot. He and his guys dropped their equipment and ran inland.
 
   The receding water was, of course, feeding a tidal wave. Just a few minutes later that wave completely destroyed the island that Troy and his crew were on. Troy survived. When the wave hit he was pushed through some wreckage and got himself impaled by a metal beam. That beam, sticking through his guts, and protruding three feet or so on either side of him, got snagged in the top of a palm tree and that kept Troy stuck to the island as the wave pushed over it. He never saw any of his crewmates again. They all went to Davy Jones’ Locker.
 
   Perhaps the Covid thing is like a tsunami. We’re all standing on the beach right now. The water has just receded. There’s a wave coming. A big one. We don’t know when it will arrive, or how big it will be, or how destructive. The mood is ominous for some. Others are oblivious; they’re running around picking up seashells.
 
Around the Corner
 
   What’s coming around the corner is anyone’s guess. At least amongst us folks at the bottom of the pyramid. To be honest, I’m not buying either one of my above analogies. If I had to pick one right now, I’d go with the tsunami, but neither one feels totally right.
 
   I’m sharing my thoughts so I can get them off my chest, and so you can take them and run with them. Maybe it will help you sort out your feelings. I’d really like that. I’m going to keep working on it on this side. Maybe I can cook up a new analogy involving a canoe or a horse or something.  If I come up with anything good I’ll share it with you. Wait a second: Are your eyes glazed over?
 
– O.M. Kelsey